Misery Index at best in 3 years as confidence and economy grow more than expected
Today’s news that the UK economy grew by 0.3% in Q4, up from
0.1% in the preliminary estimate, together with consumer confidence up by more
than an expected 3 points will make welcome news for the Chancellor as he
prepares the pre-election Budget. In addition indications from the latest bank
results suggest that impairments may have peaked.
The GfK NOP February Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB)
undertaken for The European Commission rose to –14, up from –17 in January to
its highest since last October. A year ago confidence stood at –35. Increasing
optimism about the economy is the main driver, despite recent worries over a
double dip recession and the threat of a default in Greece spreading sovereign
debt contagion across Europe. Women’s
confidence rose 6 points in the month to –14, one point lower than men’s
confidence –13.
Of the other sub-indices comprising the CCB, both forward
and backward looking measures of household finances edged higher. People are
cautious about the spending climate – the measure is unchanged for the third
successive month. Spending intentions on major household goods items fell back
suggesting the retail climate will remain tough.
Despite the sharp spike in inflation and in the claimant
count measure of unemployment in January, both unemployment and inflation
expectations improved in February. The JGFR Misery Index, a combination of the
two measures improved to record its best score in 3 years, up 8 points on
January and 18 points on a year ago and well below its long-term average.
For a full round up of the consumer’s savings and spending
intentions subscribe to the monthly UK Consumer Confidence Monitor, out on
March 3rd.
Details: John Gilbert 0208 944 7510 / 07740 027968 or
info@jgfr.co.uk